COVID and the NBA
10/3/21, with 12/27/21 stat update
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12/27/21 update (blue):
14% of the world's population is over age 60. Approximately 84% of COVID deaths are from the over 60yo population. In the last 2 years about 1/1,500 people died from COVID (1/3,000 per year). 98% of deaths occurred in the oldest 37% of the population. Nearly 40% of deaths occurred in the oldest 2% of the population. The average age at death from COVID in the US is 77, which means the average person dying from COVID has already outlived their life expectancy (71.7 and 77.5 for males and females born in 1943...which is the extreme high end of the range in numbers out there from different sources). Essentially all deaths from COVID occurred in those with underlying conditions. About 62% of COVID deaths occurred after I was vaccinated. 9 billion doses of vaccine have been administered and COVID cases are at or near an all-time high, 19 months after the mandated business shutdowns ended. Deaths from the flu, lung disease, traffic accidents, suicide, heart disease, cancer (etc) continue. In America, 820,000 people died from COVID over the last 2 years (total). 480,000 American deaths per year are attributed to smoking, and another 173,000 Americans die each year from accidents.
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Through 12/15/21, approximately 53,500 Americans under age 50 have died from COVID since the beginning of time. Each year about 45,000 Americans die by suicide - a number which is steadily increasing - most of whom are under 50 years old. 1.25 million Americans die each year from cancer or heart disease, and another 50,000 each year die from the flu or pneumonia.
*Sources: CDC and Johns Hopkins websites
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Facts:
On 3/11/20 the NBA shut down for COVID for 4 months, then returned to a bubble for 1 month of training camp and the final 8ish games of the regular season. Then another 2 months were played in the bubble for the playoffs. They then had an off-season and a new 72 game regular season (10 less games than normal) that was played in front of no fans (or extremely limited fans with restrictions). Then 2 months of playoffs. Then another off-season. Today (tomorrow for most teams), 10/3/21, is the start of the 3rd NBA season impacted by COVID.
Despite over 6.2 billion doses of the vaccine administered worldwide, there are more daily confirmed cases of COVID than anytime during the NBA shutdown or bubble. Rates are an at all-time high in Maine, Alaska, Kentucky, Idaho, Montana, Washington, West Virginia, and other states. Rates are trending down in less than 20% of states.
Conjecture (infused with facts):
Flattening the curve destroyed more lives than letting the virus run its course. It slowed the spread of immunity. It allowed time for variants to arise. It killed more people overall (including, or not including, suicides). It likely doomed economies (and work ethics) for decades to come. Even for the very old/sick/weak/predisposed individuals that were “helped” the most, almost all of them would have been dead by now anyway, and the restrictions prevented many of them from seeing their loved ones on their death bed. Years of education and normal social and physical development were disrupted and compromised. Overall health and long-term life expectancy may be/go down due to less activity (including avoiding hospitals) for 2 years.
In Japan more men died by suicide than from COVID. That’s something I predicted to my staff before the initial shutdown. I purchased “SteepenTheCovidCurve.com” at the beginning of the pandemic, but I never developed it. I apologize to the world for not doing more.
Besides the well explored “Sunken Cost Fallacy,” I’ve noticed a tendency in people (including myself) to have trouble admitting mistakes. The most important part of admitting a mistake is that it allows you to start correcting it, instead of digging a deeper hole. Maybe it’s time the world admits that we made some mistakes during this pandemic. When we first heard of this contagion in late 2019, we were told 100% of people die from it and there is no known treatment. We assumed it targeted everyone equally. We’ve known otherwise for a long time. We have masks and vaccines plentifully available. Despite that, we’ve changed our reaction to this virus at a snail's pace. We’re dooming the 99% to, at best, help the sickly 1% (most of whom already outlived the average life expectancy, as the median age of death from COVID is in the 82.4 range...and there has never been a policy proposed that would prevent those at risk from wearing a mask, wearing a face shield, getting vaccinated, and social distancing). There’s an interesting conversation to be had in comparing that 99:1 ratio to economic policies and whom they hurt/help, but at least with the economic policies there is no argument that at least 1% actually benefit.
(Mic drop)
